Harvard SPH Professor Discusses Managing, Reducing Uncertainty in an Emerging Influenza Pandemic
The early phases of an epidemic present decision makers with predictable challenges that have been evident as the current novel influenza A (H1N1) virus has spread, according to a New England Journal of Medicine Perspecitves article co-authored by Harvard School of Public Health professor Dr. Marc Lipsitch.
In the article, the authors wrote, "The scale of the problem is uncertain when a disease first appears but may increase rapidly. Early action is required, but decisions about action must be made when the threat is only modest—and consequently, they involve a trade-off between the comparatively small, but nearly certain, harm that an intervention may cause (such as rare adverse events from large-scale vaccination or economic and social costs from school dismissals) and the uncertain probability of much greater harm from a widespread outbreak."
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